Real Estate Retrospective
Real Estate: Is the party over?
Exclusive forecasts for the 100 largest markets.
It's a debate that's been raging for years, and recently that there have been clear signs of a slowdown. It's unlikely, however, that the housing market will come to a screeching halt.
To get a clearer picture of how things may play out, FORTUNE turned to Moody's Economy.com and home property-valuation service Fiserv CSW.
The researchers crunched numbers on the 100 largest metropolitan regions in the country, and the results of their analysis appear in the table below.
Nationally, the overall outlook seems reasonable: 7 percent appreciation for 2006 and flat for 2007. But markets that have seen the greatest appreciation over the past five years appear to be vulnerable.
Indeed, at some point in the next two years, according to the forecast, a third of the nation's 100 largest metro areas (accounting for 60 percent of the
Real estate bear markets often come in the form of steady declines over many years, rather than sudden sharp drops.
As inflation gradually gnaws away at the value of nominal home prices, regular folks might not take much notice. But in the long run the loss of wealth becomes all too real. From 1989 to 1997, for instance,
The nation's most perilous regional market, according to the forecast data:
Click on column headings to re-sort. Click on city name for in-depth statistics.
| Rank | Projected | ||||
| 1 | TX | $129,900 | 8.30% | 7.00% | |
| 2 | FL | $164,700 | 8.10% | 2.50% | |
| 3 | TX | $107,100 | 8.10% | 7.10% | |
| 4 | Little Rock-North Little Rock | AR | $115,700 | 7.80% | 7.20% |
| 5 | LA | $133,800 | 7.60% | 3.80% | |
| 6 | VA | $191,800 | 7.40% | 3.30% | |
| 7 | VA | $193,100 | 7.30% | 1.00% | |
| 8 | Nashville-Davidson-Newport News | TN | $157,300 | 7.10% | 6.70% |
| 9 | Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown | TX | $139,800 | 7.00% | 6.60% |
| 10 | TN | $147,600 | 7.00% | 6.50% | |
| 11 | PA | $247,400 | 6.90% | 1.20% | |
| 12 | OK | $116,900 | 6.90% | 6.00% | |
| 13 | | $152,500 | 6.90% | 5.40% | |
| 14 | NM | $166,700 | 6.50% | 6.10% | |
| 15 | SC | $133,200 | 6.40% | 5.40% | |
| 16 | TX | $125,700 | 6.30% | 5.00% | |
| 17 | NY | $109,400 | 6.20% | 5.40% | |
| 18 | OH | $116,500 | 6.10% | 5.60% | |
| 19 | TX | $71,000 | 6.10% | 6.20% | |
| 20 | UT | $165,700 | 6.10% | 3.40% | |
| 21 | TX | $161,800 | 6.10% | 5.00% | |
| 22 | OK | $116,600 | 6.10% | 6.20% | |
| 23 | PA | $113,000 | 6.00% | 5.00% | |
| 24 | Cincinnati-Middletown | OH | $146,200 | 6.00% | 6.60% |
| 25 | Albany-Schenectady-Troy | NY | $176,700 | 6.00% | 4.50% |
| 26 | TX | $155,500 | 5.90% | 6.30% | |
| 27 | MO | $134,900 | 5.80% | 4.10% | |
| 28 | OH | $116,400 | 5.70% | 5.00% | |
| 29 | SC | $141,300 | 5.70% | 5.00% | |
| 30 | FL | $314,300 | 5.60% | -3.60% | |
| 31 | IN | $121,700 | 5.60% | 5.40% | |
| 32 | KS | $107,200 | 5.50% | 4.80% | |
| 33 | OH | $150,700 | 5.50% | 6.00% | |
| 34 | OH | $117,600 | 5.40% | 5.30% | |
| 35 | Buffalo-Niagara | NY | $96,400 | 5.40% | 5.30% |
| 36 | TN | $140,100 | 5.40% | 5.20% | |
| 37 | New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner | LA | $149,100 | 5.40% | 6.60% |
| 38 | NY | $111,200 | 5.30% | 6.80% | |
| 39 | NC | $183,100 | 5.20% | 5.10% | |
| 40 | PA | $199,400 | 5.10% | 0.50% | |
| 41 | Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord | NC | $172,800 | 5.10% | 5.50% |
| 42 | KY | $134,800 | 5.00% | 4.60% | |
| 43 | WI | $210,900 | 4.80% | 2.50% | |
| 44 | FL | $193,700 | 4.80% | -0.50% | |
| 45 | NC | $145,100 | 4.80% | 5.50% | |
| 46 | MO/KS | $154,600 | 4.70% | 4.10% | |
| 47 | Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown | NY | $265,000 | 4.60% | 0.80% |
| 48 | Youngstown-Warren-Boardman | OH | $83,400 | 4.50% | 5.30% |
| 49 | IN | $127,300 | 4.40% | 3.40% | |
| 50 | Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor | OH | $142,800 | 4.30% | 5.10% |
| 51 | Omaha-Council Bluffs | NE | $136,100 | 4.30% | 4.10% |
| 52 | | IL/WI | $259,100 | 4.20% | 1.90% |
| 53 | GA | $165,300 | 4.20% | 4.00% | |
| 54 | HI | $570,400 | 4.00% | -1.00% | |
| 55 | FL | $226,400 | 3.80% | -0.50% | |
| 56 | MI | $137,300 | 3.60% | 2.90% | |
| 57 | Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield | FL | $356,600 | 3.10% | -4.50% |
| 58 | MA | $197,900 | 3.00% | 1.20% | |
| 59 | OR/WA | $234,600 | 3.00% | -0.70% | |
| 60 | MD | $249,100 | 2.90% | -0.80% | |
| 61 | AZ | $220,900 | 2.90% | -4.00% | |
| 62 | NJ | $210,800 | 2.70% | 0.80% | |
| 63 | CO | $244,800 | 2.60% | 2.50% | |
| 64 | DE | $231,000 | 2.50% | 1.70% | |
| 65 | WA | $335,500 | 2.50% | 1.00% | |
| 66 | WA | $222,700 | 2.30% | 0.60% | |
| 67 | FL | $386,200 | 2.10% | -3.90% | |
| 68 | AZ | $238,100 | 2.00% | -3.70% | |
| 69 | MI | $196,000 | 1.90% | 0.80% | |
| 70 | DC/VA | $404,900 | 1.80% | -3.40% | |
| 71 | Hartford-West Hartford-East | CT | $257,600 | 1.80% | 0.60% |
| 72 | Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall | FL | $343,700 | 1.80% | -5.50% |
| 73 | Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn | MI | $120,100 | 1.60% | 2.00% |
| 74 | Newark-Union | NJ | $407,000 | 1.50% | -1.80% |
| 75 | New Haven-Milford | CT | $280,300 | 1.40% | 0.60% |
| 76 | MA | $287,800 | 1.30% | -0.30% | |
| 77 | NJ | $387,900 | 1.20% | -2.90% | |
| 78 | IL | $264,900 | 1.10% | 0.20% | |
| 79 | Cambridge-Newton-Framingham | MA | $448,800 | 0.80% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Minneapolis-St. Paul- | MN | $234,600 | 0.70% | 0.70% |
| 81 | CT | $472,500 | 0.40% | -1.30% | |
| 82 | New York City-White Plains-Wayne | NY/NJ | $504,800 | 0.10% | -3.50% |
| 83 | San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City | CA | $766,000 | 0.10% | -2.90% |
| 84 | Bethesda-Gaithersburg-Frederick | MD | $444,500 | 0.00% | -0.50% |
| 85 | Boston-Quincy | MA | $422,900 | -0.10% | -1.40% |
| 86 | | MA | $380,600 | -0.20% | -0.70% |
| 87 | CA | $423,100 | -0.30% | -5.90% | |
| 88 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara | CA | $720,900 | -0.40% | -3.90% |
| 89 | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura | CA | $480,300 | -0.70% | -5.00% |
| 90 | Oakland-Fremont-Hayward | CA | $651,300 | -0.70% | -4.40% |
| 91 | CA | $340,800 | -0.80% | -2.80% | |
| 92 | CA | $286,300 | -0.80% | -3.00% | |
| 93 | Providence-Fall River-New | RI/MA | $292,800 | -1.10% | -2.20% |
| 94 | Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville | CA | $372,900 | -1.20% | -5.10% |
| 95 | Los Angeles-Long Beach- | CA | $412,900 | -1.60% | -6.30% |
| 96 | Nassau-Suffolk counties | NY | $461,300 | -2.00% | -4.20% |
| 97 | Riverside-San Bernardino- | CA | $362,800 | -2.60% | -6.80% |
| 98 | Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine | CA | $682,300 | -3.10% | -6.10% |
| 99 | San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos | CA | $598,700 | -3.40% | -5.70% |
| 100 | Las Vegas-Paradise | NV | $296,000 | -7.90% | -5.00% |
Comments (0)
Print
Send
del.icio.us
Linking Blogs
Add Your Comments
Post your comment about this blog entry.